Annexes to COM(2011)885 - Energy Roadmap 2050

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dossier COM(2011)885 - Energy Roadmap 2050.
document COM(2011)885 EN
date December 15, 2011
annex "Selected Stakeholders' Scenarios", including scenarios of the International Energy Agency, Greenpeace/EREC, the European Climate Foundation and Eurelectric. Further studies and reports have been closely analysed, such as e.g. the independent report of the Ad hoc Advisory Group on the Energy Roadmap 2050.

[10]             These uncertainties include among others the pace of economic growth, the extent of global efforts to mitigate climate change, geopolitical developments, the level of world energy prices, the dynamics of markets, the development of future technologies, the availability of natural resources, social changes and public perception.

[11]             European societies might need to rethink the way energy is consumed, e.g. by changing urban planning and consumption patterns. See Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe (COM(2011) 571).

[12]             For details on the scenarios see Impact Assessment.

[13]             Energy system costs today and 2050 are not directly comparable. While the renovation costs enter fully into the cost accounting, increasing house values relate to assets and capital stock considerations that are not part of the energy analysis. As vehicle costs covered cannot distinguish between energy-related and other costs, they are upper estimates.

[14]             For example, it is estimated that electricity prices in Europe is 21% more expensive than in the United States or 197% more expensive than in China.

[15]             For example, more than 5000 Petajoules of energy could be saved in the EU (more then three year consumption of energy in Finland (SEC (2011) 1067).

[16]             Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources.

[17]             On the other hand, gas heating may be more energy efficient than electric heating or other forms of fossil fuel heating, implying that gas may have growth potential in the heating sector in some Member States.

[18]             Including those resulting from the need to increase the resilience to natural and man-made disasters.

[19]             This situation is not addressed in the scenarios: in the modelling the pricing mechanism is designed so that investors are fully remunerated (full cost recovery via electricity prices) leading to an increase in electricity prices in the long-run.

[20]             Full market integration by 2014, as decided by the European Council on February 4th, 2011, supported by infrastructure developments and technical work on Framework Guidelines and Network Codes

[21]             Proposal for a regulation on guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure (COM(2011) 658) and proposal for a regulation establishing the Connecting Europe Facility (COM(2011) 665).).

[22]             European Network of Transmission System Operators.

[23]             Scenarios for the Low Carbon Economy Roadmap of March 2011 show the additional costs of delayed action. Also, the IEA (2011) World Energy Outlook 2011 argues that on a global level, for every $1 of investment avoided in the power sector before 2020 an additional $4.3 would need to be spent after 2020 to compensate for the increased emissions.

[24]             The CPI scenario results in a carbon value of some 50€ in 2050, the decarbonisation scenarios substantially more.

[25]             Communication on security of energy supply and international cooperation (COM(2011) 539).

[26]             "Increasing the Impact of EU Development Policy: an Agenda for Change" (COM(2011)637, 13 October).