(6) | Based on data provided by the Commission (Eurostat) in accordance with Article 14 of Regulation (EC) No 479/2009 following the notification by Lithuania before 1 April 2013 and on the Commission services 2013 spring forecast, the following conclusions are justified:
— | Having peaked at 9,4 % of GDP in 2009 the general government deficit in Lithuania has been brought down to 7,2 % of GDP in 2010, then to 5,5 % of GDP in 2011, and to 3,2 % of GDP in 2012. This improvement was driven by consolidation measures on the expenditure side, in particular a continued restriction of expenditure growth in accordance with Lithuania's Law on Fiscal Discipline, and favourable cyclical conditions. |
— | Since the deficit of 3,2 % of GDP can be considered to be close to the reference value and Lithuania's debt-to-GDP ratio is below the 60 %-of-GDP reference value in a sustained manner, Lithuania is eligible to for the application of the Stability and Growth Pact provisions in Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 regarding systemic pension reforms. Thus, the direct net cost of the pension reform should be taken into account when assessing the correction of the excessive deficit. As the net costs of Lithuania's systemic pension reform have been 0,2 % of GDP in 2012, as confirmed by the Commission (Eurostat), these costs explain the excess over the 3 %-of-GDP Treaty reference value in 2012. |
— | Lithuania's Convergence Programme for 2012 to 2016 projects the general government deficit to continue falling to 2, 5% of GDP in 2013 and 1,5 % of GDP in 2014, while the Commission services 2013 spring forecast projects an improvement, albeit a slower one, of the general government deficit to 2,9 % of GDP in 2013 and to 2,4 % of GDP in 2014, based on a no-policy-change assumption. Thus, the deficit is set to remain below the 3 %-of-GDP Treaty reference value over the forecast horizon. |
— | The Commission services 2013 spring forecast project the general government gross debt to decrease slightly from 40,7 % of GDP in 2013 to 40,1 % of GDP in 2014. |
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