On 26 March 2010, the European Council agreed to the Commission’s proposal to launch a new strategy for jobs and growth, Europe 2020, based on enhanced coordination of economic policies, which focuses on the key areas where action is needed to boost Europe’s potential for sustainable growth and competitiveness.
(2)
On 13 July 2010, the Council adopted a recommendation on the broad guidelines for the economic policies of the Member States and the Union (2010 to 2014) and, on 21 October 2010, adopted a decision on guidelines for the employment policies of the Member States (2), which together form the ‘integrated guidelines’. Member States were invited to take the integrated guidelines into account in their national economic and employment policies.
(3)
On 12 July 2011, the Council adopted a recommendation (3) on Estonia’s National Reform Programme for 2011 and delivered its opinion on Estonia’s Stability Programme for 2011-15.
(4)
On 23 November 2011, the Commission adopted the second Annual Growth Survey, marking the start of the second European semester of ex ante and integrated policy coordination, which is anchored in the Europe 2020 strategy. On 14 February 2012, the Commission, on the basis of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances (4), adopted the Alert Mechanism Report, in which it did not identify Estonia as one of the Member States for which an in-depth review would be carried out.
(5)
On 1 December 2011, the Council adopted conclusions calling the Social Protection Committee, in cooperation with the Employment and other Committees, to present its views on actions recommended within the Europe 2020 policy cycle. These views form part of the opinion of the Employment Committee.
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The European Parliament has been duly involved in the European Semester, in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1466/97, and, on 15 February 2012, adopted a resolution on employment and social aspects in the Annual Growth Survey 2012 and a resolution on the contribution to the Annual Growth Survey 2012.
(7)
On 2 March 2012, the European Council endorsed the priorities for ensuring financial stability, fiscal consolidation and action to foster growth. It underscored the need to pursue differentiated, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, to restore normal lending conditions to the economy, to promote growth and competitiveness, to tackle unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis, and to modernise public administration. It invited Member States to implement the Council’s country-specific recommendations for 2011 and to translate these priorities into concrete measures to be included in their Stability or Convergence Programmes and their National Reform Programmes.
(8)
On 2 March 2012, the European Council also invited the Member States participating in the Euro Plus Pact to present their commitments in time to be included in their Stability or Convergence Programmes and their National Reform Programmes.
(9)
On 26 April 2012, Estonia submitted its Stability Programme covering the period 2012-15 and its 2012 National Reform Programme. In order to take account of their interlinkages, the two Programmes have been assessed at the same time.
(10)
Based on the assessment of the Stability Programme pursuant to Article 5(1) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97, the Council is of the opinion that the macroeconomic scenario underpinning the budgetary projections in the Programme is plausible in 2012-13, when GDP growth is expected to average around 2,4 %. The Commission services’ 2012 spring forecast foresees GDP growth of 3,8 % in 2013. The objective of the budgetary strategy outlined in the Stability Programme is to ensure sustainable fiscal policy that supports balanced growth, by achieving a structural surplus while ensuring sufficient fiscal buffers and reducing the tax burden on labour. The strategy also aims at fulfilling the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact. The Stability Programme aims at overachieving the medium-term budgetary objective (MTO) of a structural surplus as of 2013.
The MTO adequately reflects the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact. Based on the (recalculated) structural budget balance (5), the rate of growth of government expenditure, taking into account discretionary revenue measures, will meet the expenditure benchmark of the Stability and Growth Pact by 2015. In parallel, the Stability Programme aims at reaching headline surpluses as of 2014. The debt ratio is well below 60 % of GDP and, according to the programme, is likely to decrease after 2013 to about 10 % in 2015.
(11)
Estonia achieved a sizeable budget surplus in 2011. The projected rate of economic growth for 2012 in the Commission services’ 2012 spring forecast looks much weaker than for 2011, dropping from 7,6 % to 1,6 %, and therefore further control over efficiency of spending is necessary. Estonia plans to introduce a structural budget rule in 2012 to help keep control over expenditure. The rule should be complemented by strengthening the binding nature of the multiannual expenditure targets as soon as the budget rule is in place. Thus, Estonia has partially implemented the 2011 recommendation in this area.
(12)
As regards the labour market, a number of steps have been made in the area of labour taxation. However, the incentives to work can be improved by addressing the rising trend in take-up of disability and incapacity-for-work benefits and by making work pay for low and high-income earners receiving unemployment and parental benefits. While promising efforts have been made to reduce the high unemployment, long-term and youth unemployment is still high. As a result, the poverty risk of children in jobless households is increasing and needs to be addressed by effective social services, including family services. The family support itself could be made more efficient in a budget-neutral way by better targeting the allocation of parental and family benefits and by removing inefficient income tax exemptions related to children.
(13)
The measures in the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan are still insufficient given the current trend of modal shift away from public transport. The fleet of new cars in Estonia is the most energy intensive in EU. Fuel excise duties are insufficient in shifting consumer patterns. The transposition of several energy-related EU Directives has not yet been fully completed. Estonia still needs to diversify its energy supply. The electricity infrastructure could be upgraded to integrate increasing amounts of wind energy.
(14)
The quality and availability of vocational education has considerably improved and more modernisation measures are planned for 2012-13. However, the transition from general education to vocational education needs to be improved, and a generalisation of more work-based schemes could be considered. Lifelong learning participation is improving, but there is an insufficient focus on low-skilled workers. There are continuing problems with matching education outcomes with labour market needs. There is also a need to urgently reform upper-secondary education and for further improvement in the provision of education services by local authorities. Also, cooperation between the business sector and higher education institutions continues to be weak, while the knowledge-intensive part of the private sector should be further developed.
(15)
To reflect the declining demographic trend and ensure a balanced and competitive regional development, there is a longer-term need to ensure financial sustainability of local governments as well as to ensure a better provision of public services at local level and optimise the use of relatively dispersed resources. Being limited in size, the majority of local governments have difficulties in universally delivering the necessary social, health, labour market, transport and educational services.
(16)
Estonia has made a number of commitments under the Euro Plus Pact. These commitments, and the implementation of the commitments presented in 2011, relate to fostering employment, improving competitiveness and enhancing sustainability of public finances. The Commission has assessed the implementation of the Euro Plus Pact commitments. The results of this assessment have been taken into account in the recommendations.
(17)
In the context of the European Semester, the Commission has carried out a comprehensive analysis of Estonia’s economic policy. It has assessed the Stability Programme and the National Reform Programme. It has taken into account not only their relevance for sustainable fiscal and socioeconomic policy in Estonia but also their compliance with EU rules and guidance, given the need to reinforce the overall economic governance of the Union by providing EU-level input into future national decisions. Its recommendations under the European Semester are reflected in recommendations (1) to (5) below.
(18)
In the light of this assessment, the Council has examined the Stability Programme, and its opinion (6) is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below,
HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Estonia take action within the period 2012-13 to:
1.
Preserve a sound fiscal position by implementing budgetary plans as envisaged, ensuring achievement of the MTO by 2013 at the latest, and compliance with the expenditure benchmark. Complement the planned budget rule with more binding multiannual expenditure rules within the medium-term budgetary framework, continue enhancing the efficiency of public spending and implementing measures to improve tax compliance.
2.
Improve incentives to work by streamlining the social benefits system and increasing flexibility in the allocation of disability, unemployment and parental benefits, while ensuring adequate social protection. Improve delivery of social services, while better targeting family and parental benefits and removing distortionary income tax exemptions related to children. Increase the participation of the young and the long-term unemployed in the labour market.
3.
Link training and education more effectively to the needs of the labour market, and enhance cooperation between businesses and academia. Increase opportunities for low-skilled workers to improve their access to lifelong learning. Foster prioritisation and internationalisation of the research and innovation systems.
4.
Improve energy efficiency, in particular in buildings and transport, and strengthen environmental incentives concerning vehicles and waste, including by considering incentives such as the taxation of vehicles. Foster renewable energy use, including through upgraded infrastructure and legislation. Continue the development of cross-border connections to end relative market isolation.
5.
Enhance fiscal sustainability of municipalities while improving efficiency of local governments and ensure effective service provision, notably through stronger incentives for the merger of or increased cooperation between municipalities. Relevant reform proposals should be put in place within a reasonable timeframe.
(2) Maintained for 2012 by Council Decision 2012/238/EU of 26 April 2012 on guidelines for the employment policies of the Member States (OJ L 119, 4.5.2012, p. 47).
(5) Cyclically-adjusted balance net of one-off and temporary measures, recalculated by the Commission services on the basis of the information provided in the Programme, using the commonly agreed methodology.
(6) Under Article 5i of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.
